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Nov 9

Auditing Contextual Bias in Human Ball-Strike Calls Using KBO's Automated Umpiring Transition

This paper uses the Korean Baseball Organization's adoption of the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system to audit long-standing claims about contextual bias in human ball-strike calls. Using pitch-level KBO data from 2021 through the available portion of the 2026 season, we model called-strike probability for taken pitches near the strike-zone boundary, with 2022-2023 as the primary human-umpire baseline and ABS seasons (2024 and onward) as a diagnostic benchmark. The strongest evidence concerns count pressure. Relative to 0--0 counts, human umpires called substantially fewer strikes in two-strike counts and more strikes in hitter-ahead three-ball counts. Specifically, in the main 0.25-ft boundary band, 0--2 was associated with a -17.17 percentage-point effect and 3--0 with a +6.61 percentage-point effect. Under ABS, the corresponding effects were close to zero and did not survive false-discovery-rate correction. Game progression shows a smaller but coherent pattern as human calls were less strike-prone in early innings and more strike-prone in innings 7--9+, especially in late-close situations, while complete ABS seasons were essentially flat. Other suspected biases are weaker or more localized. Salary-based reputation proxies provide suggestive but proxy-sensitive evidence, and catcher identity shows human-period residual heterogeneity that disappears under ABS. Home-context evidence is mostly null at the umpire level, with one FDR-significant human-period exception and an exploratory umpire-team gap best treated as an audit lead. Overall, the results do not show that human umpires were biased everywhere. Instead, they map where the human strike zone was most context-sensitive, where evidence was weaker, and where common suspicions received little support.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 2

Harnessing the Potential of Gen-AI Coding Assistants in Public Sector Software Development

The study on GitHub Copilot by GovTech Singapore's Engineering Productivity Programme (EPP) reveals significant potential for AI Code Assistant tools to boost developer productivity and improve application quality in the public sector. Highlighting the substantial benefits for the public sector, the study observed an increased productivity (coding / tasks speed increased by 21-28%), which translates into accelerated development, and quicker go-to-market, with a notable consensus (95%) that the tool increases developer satisfaction. Particularly, junior developers experienced considerable efficiency gains and reduced coding times, illustrating Copilot's capability to enhance job satisfaction by easing routine tasks. This advancement allows for a sharper focus on complex projects, faster learning, and improved code quality. Recognising the strategic importance of these tools, the study recommends the development of an AI Framework to maximise such benefits while cautioning against potential over-reliance without solid foundational programming skills. It also advises public sector developers to classify their code as "Open" to use Gen-AI Coding Assistant tools on the Cloud like GitHub Copilot and to consider self-hosted tools like Codeium or Code Llama for confidential code to leverage technology efficiently within the public sector framework. With up to 8,000 developers, comprising both public officers and vendors developing applications for the public sector and its customers, there is significant potential to enhance productivity.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 25, 2024